Social Security COLA for 2027 Now Estimated at 3.5 to 3.6 Percent, AARP and Senior Groups Say

AARP and the Senior Citizens League estimate the 2027 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment will land between 3.5 and 3.6 percent, which would represent the largest annual increase since 2023.

AARP projects a 3.6 percent increase, which would raise the average retired worker's monthly benefit by approximately $75. The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.5 percent increase, estimating an average monthly benefit increase of about $67.90.

The official COLA figure will be announced by the Social Security Administration on October 14, 2026, following the release of September Consumer Price Index data. The adjustment is calculated based on the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers during the third quarter of the year.

The 2026 COLA was 2.5 percent. If the 2027 adjustment comes in at 3.5 to 3.6 percent as projected, it would reflect a pickup in inflation compared to last year.

Volatile energy prices, particularly oil and diesel costs, remain a key variable that could shift the final figure before October. Analysts said the estimates are preliminary and could change depending on September's inflation reading.

Some advocacy groups, including the Senior Citizens League, have argued that the CPI-W does not fully reflect the spending patterns of retirees, who typically spend more on housing and healthcare than the general urban workforce. They have called for a separate index that better tracks senior expenses.

Social Security serves as the primary income source for many retirees. The annual COLA is designed to help benefits keep pace with rising prices.