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Aug 27, 20261 views2 min read

Social Security COLA for 2027 Projected at 3.5 Percent as Inflation Cools

Experts project the Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment for 2027 will fall between 3.4 and 3.6 percent, following July 2026 inflation data showing the CPI-W rising 3.4 percent year-over-year. The official adjustment will be announced by the Social Security Administration on October 14, 2026.

Social Security COLA for 2027 Projected at 3.5 Percent as Inflation Cools
Source:CNBC Personal Finance

Experts project the Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment for 2027 will fall between 3.4 and 3.6 percent, following July 2026 inflation data showing the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers rising 3.4 percent year-over-year.

The Senior Citizens League currently estimates the 2027 COLA at 3.6 percent. AARP projects a 3.5 percent increase, while independent policy analyst Mary Johnson estimates a range of 3.4 to 3.6 percent. These estimates have been revised slightly downward from earlier in the year as inflation has moderated.

A 3.5 to 3.6 percent increase would be the largest adjustment since 2023. If the COLA settles at 3.6 percent, the average monthly benefit for a retired worker, approximately $2,071 as of early 2026, would increase by roughly $75 per month. AARP estimates a 3.5 percent COLA would result in a $73 monthly increase for the average retired worker, a $68 increase for surviving spouses, and a $57 increase for disabled workers.

The official adjustment will be announced by the Social Security Administration on October 14, 2026, after the release of September inflation data. The COLA is calculated by comparing the CPI-W from the third quarter of the current year to the same period from the previous year.

Advocacy groups including The Senior Citizens League have noted that the CPI-W does not always reflect the spending patterns of seniors, who typically allocate more of their budgets to housing and medical care. This can result in benefits that do not fully keep pace with the costs older Americans actually face.

These projections remain preliminary and subject to change based on August and September inflation data.

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