Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% Then Rise Again Amid Middle East Tensions

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.99% on February 23, 2026 - its lowest level since September 2022 - according to Mortgage News Daily. That's down nearly a full percentage point from 6.87% a year ago. Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released February 19, corroborated the trend, putting the average at 6.01%.

The decline was being driven by a combination of factors, including broader bond market improvement, ongoing tariff uncertainty and economic weakness reflected in a recent gross domestic product (GDP) report. Rates had eased gradually over several weeks, which analysts said makes the current level more sustainable than a brief dip below 6% in January that reversed the same day.

For homebuyers and homeowners alike, the drop below 6% was meaningful. Even before rates crossed that threshold, refinance applications were already surging - up 132% year over year for the week ending February 13, according to the MBA's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Purchase applications have been slower to respond, running just 8% higher year over year for the same period, reflecting the fact that elevated home prices and tight inventory continue to weigh on affordability even as borrowing costs fall.

However, by March 17, 2026, mortgage and refinance rates had moved up to three-month highs, with bond market concerns mounting due to the Middle East conflict, pushing rates back above 6%. This volatility demonstrates how geopolitical events can quickly impact the housing market and borrowing costs.

The timing is significant heading into the spring homebuying season. Where rates go from here will depend largely on incoming inflation and labor market data, as well as the resolution of international conflicts. Potential homebuyers should stay on top of current mortgage rates and consider whether now is the right time to buy a house, taking into account both current rates and their personal financial situation.